Curtains Down for Telangana? --- Analysis by MBS Prasad

Delhi’s attitude is becoming clearer. They won’t go back on their word. They’ll see that assembly tables the T (elengana)-resolution. Whether it gets passed there or not, they will take it up in parliament. This is what they told bluntly when MLAs from C(Coastal) and R (Rayalaseema) met them. They said “You have misled us thru hypocrisy and you want to place all the blame at our doorstep. You pay for your sins and pacify your electorate. That is not our funeral.” Does this mean Congress gave up C & R? Here lies the rub, I am afraid. There is something lurking between the lines. As per them, the resolution has to be tabled and it is not imperative to see that it is passed. Congress has no history of issuing whips (a command asking all the party members to vote on party lines under the threat of expulsion) in such matters. Other parties too might follow the suit. When there is no whip, party members might vote region-wise. 175 members from C & R regions might vote against state-division bill. Out of the 119 from T region, some MLAs from certain districts (Hyderabad, RR, Khammam etc.) might vote against. The real estate sector opposing separation might chip in with moneybags. Probably Rajagopal was counting on these factors when he said 225 would against the bill. But assembly’s approval of division is not mandatory. It is advisory in nature but it conveys a message that everyone in T is not asking for separation. The bill then goes to parliament. KCR has been telling us he did lot of lobbying in Delhi for years together and gathered strength for T bill. Let us see the chances of winning there. Sharad Pawar backed out. DMK said firm ‘no’. Mamata too. BJP and BSP are the large parties supporting the bill. Among BJP allies - Shiv Sena is against the bill due to Vidarbha problem. Nitish says he would rather welcome merger of Jharkhand into Bihar rather than splitting any state further. In the third front, CPM and its allies oppose and CPI supports the bill. The minor ones like Ajit Singh’s etc. may count up to 25 votes more, maximum Everything depends upon what Congress does. In the absence of whip, many state units oppose the bill. Maharashtra CM is already on record that he is against divisions. Every other state has some or other problem in the shape of SC classification, SC status for certain castes, inclusion into BC list etc. Why add another one, they might think. ‘T problem concerns people in T only. Why stir up hornet’s nest here for their sake’ they might reason. Even BJP finds it hard to convince its Karnataka unit in view of separate Coorg demand. No whip means No T bill, one can safely conclude. Probably this is what Chidambaram and co. told JC Diwakar Reddy and Co. This way high command does not lose its face in T and does not displease C & R. But this definitely angers voters in T and Congress would be taught a lesson. Is Congress prepared for this? They must be banking upon weak public memory. Next assembly elections are four and a half years away. This anger might die down. In 1971 Congress hijacked TPS lock, stock and barrel by luring Chenna Reddy and co., who led 1969 separate T agitation. T people felt bitter but did not carry the grouse till next elections. They elected Congress again in 1977. By giving T now, Congress is bound to lose C & R, much bigger state than T Again there is no guarantee that Congress gets the benefit in T. Initial advantage goes to TRS and where TRS is weak, Congress has to compete with TDP, whose cadre in T is strong. Even if TRS offers to join Congress, local Cong. Leaders oppose it for fear of losing tickets for TRS candidates. And mercurial KCR’s record does not show him a reliable ally. Cong; has another option postponing the issue by keeping assembly in suspended animation or appointing a commission. Supposing the commission submits its report in 2012, govt. has to take some action displeasing some or the other area and since 2014 would not be far away repercussions might be drastic. So Congress decided to take up T issue on now-or-never basis and wants to resolve the issue once and for all, I think. Caveat – This piece is written applying pure logic and the writer is not endowed with any supernatural powers to predict or any inside information. Take it or leave it, but do not attribute any motives, please. Source : http://greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=18083&cat=10&scat=25 MBS Prasad mbsprasad@gmail.com